The FOMC Minutes and Consumer Sentiment report were the most impactful calendar items last week, further reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s resolve to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.
While there is considerable speculation about another rate increase, recent analyst expectations suggest that the Fed will hold rates at their current level for some time. The Consumer Sentiment report showed a slight increase, largely driven by moderating gas prices, which have helped provide consumers with some relief.
Consumer Sentiment Report
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of 48.9, although it remained slightly below forecasts of 50. Still, sentiment improved from 44.8 in May, the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in gasoline prices. The expectations gauge was at 50.7, the highest in three months, compared to 49.3 in the initial estimate, as consumers’ worries over long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing.
FOMC Minutes
The Fed chief reiterated that the central bank will no longer provide traditional forward guidance on future interest-rate decisions, signaling a shift in its communication approach. Inflation risks have eased in recent weeks, but the US central bank remains committed to restoring inflation to its 2% target, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the ECB’s Sintra Forum. Warsh stressed that delivering price stability remains the Fed’s primary objective, while underscoring policymakers’ independence in setting monetary policy and rejecting any suggestion that political pressure would influence their decisions.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13%, bringing the current rate to 6.73%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.12%, bringing the current rate to 7.40%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.05%, with current the rate at 7.15%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with current the rate at 7.17%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 197,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 199,000.
What’s Ahead
Next week brings a full economic calendar, including the CPI and PPI inflation data releases, retail sales, and the increasingly impactful 5- and 10-year Treasury note auctions.
