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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 2, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 2, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home prices, new and pending home sales, and the post-meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Breaks Records for Second Consecutive Month

National home prices grew by 16.60 percent year-over-year in May according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. April’s reading reported year-over-year home price growth of 14.80 percent. Home price growth broke records for the second month in a row in May. S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported top home price growth in Phoenix, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, and San Diego, California again held the top three positions for US home price growth.

Home price growth exceeded expectations in the months since the covid pandemic arose as homeowners and homebuyers sought to relocate to less populated areas. Demand for homes continued to exceed inventories of homes for sale; this trend has driven home prices beyond the reach of many first-time and moderate-income buyers.  While affordability issues won’t be solved overnight, some slowing in home prices growth suggested that the national housing boom was easing as demand for homes slowed. Affordability became an obstacle for homebuyers who could not compete with rapidly escalating home prices, high demand for homes, and buyers prepared to make cash offers.

New and Pending Home Sales Fall

Rapidly rising home prices and few choices among available homes caused new home sales and pending home sales to fall in June. Homebuyers were frustrated with low inventories of homes and high home prices. Pending home sales fell by 1.90 percent in June; analysts expected an increase of 0.50 percent for pending home sales. Pending home sales in May rose by 8.30 percent.

June sales of new homes fell to a year-over-year pace of  676,000 sales as compared to May’s reading of 724,000 sales of new homes. Analysts expected a year-over-year sales pace of 795,000 new homes sold.  This was the lowest pace for sales of new homes since the onset of the pandemic.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported mixed changes in average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 2.80 percent, but the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by two basis points to 2.10 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.45 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell to 400,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 424,000 claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 3.27 million ongoing claims filed last week as compared to 3.26 million ongoing jobless claims filed in the previous week.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it did not raise the Federal Reserve’s key target interest rate range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for July was released with an index reading of 81.2; a reading of 80.5 was expected based on June’s index reading of 80.8.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending and labor sector readings on jobs growth and national unemployment. Weekly reporting on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Will Missing Mortgage Payments Impact My FICO Score? Yes – and Here’s How

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Will Missing Mortgage Payments Impact My FICO Score Yes and Heres HowIf you’re like most homeowners, you probably believe that one missed mortgage payment won’t have a noticeable impact on your FICO score. People get behind now and then, and besides, you’ve been faithfully making payments on time for years. How bad could it be?

In truth, even one missed mortgage payment could seriously damage your FICO score. Lenders can report missed monthly payments whenever they choose – they don’t need to wait until a certain date to do it. That means even if your mortgage payment is a few days late, your lender may report it as unpaid.

So what exactly happens to a FICO score when you miss a mortgage payment? Here’s what you need to know.

Payment History: The Single Largest Factor In Determining Your Credit Score

FICO scores are calculated based on several different criteria, the largest of them being your payment history. A full 35% of your credit score is determined by how often you pay your bills on time and in full. And although FICO says that one or two late payments aren’t going to decimate your credit score, they will shave off some points that could have made the difference between a low-risk and high-risk interest rate.

Consumers With Higher Scores Have More To Lose

A 2011 FICO study analyzed the impact of late mortgage payments on consumer credit scores. The study grouped consumers into three groups based on their starting FICO score, with Consumer A having a score of 680, Consumer B a score of 720, and Consumer C a score of 780. The findings?

Even if you have a credit score of 780, being just 30 days late on a mortgage payment can result in a 100-point drop. And it can take up to three years to earn that credit back. In contrast, a consumer with a score of 680 who is 30 days late will see only a 70 point drop and can recover their original score within 9 months.

The takeaway? Contrary to popular belief, people with high credit scores stand to lose more from a missed payment than people with low credit scores.

There Are Varying Degrees Of “Late”

One common misconception is that if you miss a mortgage payment, it doesn’t matter if it’s 30, 60, or 90 days overdue. The mainstream thinking is that late is late is late. But that’s not how FICO sees it.

Although borrowers with credit scores under 700 won’t see much of a decline after 30 days late, borrowers with a higher credit score will. If you have a credit score of 720 and you’re 30 days late on your mortgage, your score will fall to about 640. If you’re 90 days late, that score will fall again this time, to about 620.

That means if you miss a mortgage payment, you need to get in touch with your lender as soon as possible in order make repayment arrangements and hope they haven’t yet reported the overdue payment. It’s your best shot at protecting your FICO score.

Credit scores can be vulnerable to all sorts of factors, which is why if you’re looking into mortgages, you’ll want to consult an expert. A qualified mortgage professional can help you find a mortgage you can afford, so your credit will stay intact. Contact your local mortgage expert to learn more.

S&P Case-Schiller Indices Report Record Rise in Home Prices

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S&P Case-Schiller Indices Report Record Rise in Home PricesHome prices continued to rise at record rates in May according to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. National home prices rose by 16.60 percent year-over-year in May as compared to 14.80 percent year-over-year price growth in April. The 10-City Home Price Index reported home prices rose 16.40 percent year-over-year and 1.90 percent month-to-month.

20-City Home Price Index Reports 17 Percent Home Price Growth Year-Over-Year

S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported month-to-month home price growth of two percent in May as year-over-year home price gains rose from April’s reading of 15 percent to 17 percent year-over-year home price growth.

All cities participating in the 20-City Home Price Index reported home price gains in May. Three cities held their positions with top rates of home price growth. Phoenix Arizona held first place with year-over-year home price growth of 25.90 percent; San Diego, California reported 24.70 percent home price growth. Seattle Washington held third place with 23.40 percent year-over-year home price growth in May.

Home Price Growth Expected to Slow as Buyers Drop Out of Market

Craig Lazarra, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P down Jones Indices said he found himself “running out of superlatives to describe the record increases in home prices.” Analysts credited homebuyer relocation from urban areas to less populated suburban and rural areas for driving up prices. The pandemic initially drove this trend and continues to do so today. Other factors pushing home prices higher included high demand for homes exceeding homes available. As millennials reach their prime-home buying years, demand for homes will increase. Low mortgage rates also encouraged would-be home buyers into the housing market.

High demand for homes drives home prices up, but slower sales suggest that buyers are reaching a tipping point with affordability. Fewer buyers will raise the inventory of available homes and cause home prices to fall. First-time and moderate-income buyers continue to face affordability constraints in many areas, but home prices likely won’t fall significantly in the near term.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported similar readings for single-family homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 1.70 percent from April to May and 18.00 percent year-over-year in May. Readings from FHFA include seasonally-adjusted purchase-only data;  refinance transactions were not included.

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